A US Recession Likely to Come in 2023, According to CEOs and Economists

Concerns over whether the U.S. economy will be able to tamp down inflation without entering a recession are continuing to grow. According to the latest Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence survey released on Wednesday, an overwhelming majority (93%) of CEOs are preparing for a U.S. recession over the next 12 to 18 months. However, 81% of respondents expect it will be a brief and shallow recession with limited global spillover, the survey found. The results are correlated with earnings from the last few weeks. Across the board, retail executives have noted softening demand in non-discretionary categories and have expressed concern about weak consumer demand. Walmart CFO John Rainey said last week that the company has “canceled billions in orders” to deal with inventory pileups that have amassed over the last few quarters. Target said it had reduced its “inventory exposure in discretionary categories” throughout Q2 by canceling more than $1.5 billion of orders in these categories and marking down products. Kohl’s, Foot Locker and more companies cited weak consumer demand as well. However, many expressed optimism in the return to normalcy through the course of the year. Among other key data in the CEO Confidence survey, 77% of CEOs said current conditions

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